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06/23/2009 - Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - West. 2008 Record - 15-5. Playoff Result: Defeated Montreal, 22-14, in the Grey Cup Championship. Stadium - McMahon Stadium. Capacity - 35,650. Colors - Red, white and black
Sixty years after winning their first Grey Cup, the 2008 version of the Stampeders turned the trick yet again, the first time since 2001 and just the sixth time since a football club from Calgary first appeared on the scene nearly a century ago.
Head coach and general manager John Hufnagel has his work cut out for him this season as the rest of the league places a bullseye on him and his Stamps.
What Hufnagel does have working in his favor is the 2008 Grey Cup MVP in Henry Burris. A product of Temple University more than a decade ago, Burris started every game for Calgary in 2008 and set personal highs for pass attempts (591), completions (381), passing yards (5,094) and touchdowns (39), all of which also represented the top totals for the squad since 1994.
More than just a passer, Burris also ranked second on the team in rushing with 595 yards, which means defenses have to be ready for almost anything when he takes the snap from center.
Stretching the field for Burris heading into the new season are wideouts Ken- Yon Rambo and Brett Ralph, while Titus Ryan and Ryan Thelwell will confound defenses as the second string of receivers.
Rambo backed up a career-best season in 2007 by drastically improving his numbers. A selection of the Oakland Raiders during the seventh round of the 2001 NFL Draft, Rambo logged 100 catches and a league-leading 1,473 yards a season ago, both sets of numbers marking the highest for the club since the 1995 campaign.
Ralph is a Canadian native who tallied 49 catches for 683 yards and five touchdowns in 2008, making him the most productive non-import for the Stampeders, even though he did attend both the University of Wyoming and Boise State before making his way to the University of Alberta in 2004.
Making his way out of the backfield for the Stamps will be Joffrey Reynolds, attempting to continue his growth as a running back who went from placing second in the league in rushing twice to the top of the list in 2008 with his 1,310 yards. Despite the style of play in the CFL leaning more heavily on the pass, Reynolds who has now posted four straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons, is expected to make another major impact.
Over on the defensive side of the ball, the line has lost a couple of players to the NFL (Charleston Hughes and Pat MacDonald), but that still leaves Mike Labinjo and Miguel Robede who will try to reprise their performances as the co-sack leaders for the Stampeders. With a total of 10 new faces in the mix there will be constant pressure to perform at a high level, which might bring a mixed bag of success depending on how the coaching staff deals with the ups and downs.
The middle of the field will be dominated by Shannon James, the linebacker who last season was regarded as the top defender for the Stampeders. This is the group that seems to be the most stable as both JoJuan Armour and Dwaine Carpenter were also considered regular starters for the unit a year ago. Having released Saleem Rasheed, the move could move Armour into the middle linebacker spot and/or give a handful of gifted additions a shot at plenty of playing time.
The secondary might be a work in progress as the coaches figure out how to fill voids left by a few key performers who helped the group place second in the league in the percentage of completed passes allowed. Brandon Browner stands as the top defensive back, having been named the only defender for the Stamps to make the CFL's All-Star team in 2008. Dwight Anderson, Brandon Smith and Wes Lysack have also shown starting ability and will be pushed by some talented additions.
Given that the majority of the primary pieces to the Calgary puzzle are back in place for another go, there's no reason to think this group can't retrace its steps and end up as the team that everyone else chases in the West Division yet again.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Finish: First
<< Rolling Rockies shoot for another win over Angels
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ubaldo Jimenez goes for a fourth straight winning start as
the Colorado Rockies continue a three-game series with the Los Angeles Angels
of Anaheim tonight.
Jimenez is 6-6 with a 3.73 earned run average on the season and h
<< Wang gets another try as Yanks battle Braves
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chien-Ming Wang takes another crack at his first win of the
season this evening, when the New York Yankees open a three-game series with
the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field.
Wang has been absolutely miserable in his six sta
<< It's worst vs. first as Nationals host Red Sox
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A suddenly-thin rotation might mean Boston Red Sox hurler
Brad Penny isn't going anywhere. It doesn't hurt that he has been pitching
well either.
Penny and his current team kick off a three-game set with Washington tonight
<< Hot Seat in South Bend
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Charlie Weis took over the Notre Dame
program in 2005, and in his first two seasons at the helm, set coaching
records with a combined 19 victories and two BCS bowl appearances.
Of course, that all seems li
2009 CFL Western Preview - Saskatchewan Roughriders >>
Regina, SK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - West. 2008 Record -
12-6. Playoff Result: Lost, 33-12, to British Columbia in the West Division
semifinals. Stadium - Mosaic Stadium at Taylor Field. Capacity - 30,945.
Colors - Gree
Roddick, del Potro reach second round at Big W >>
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two-time runner-up Andy Roddick and
fifth-seeded Argentine Juan Martin del Potro were a pair of first-round
winners Tuesday at Wimbledon.
The sixth-seeded Roddick hiccupped in the third set in an othe
2009 CFL Western Preview - British Columbia Lions >>
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - West. 2008 Record
- 12-8. Playoff Result: Lost, 22-18, to Calgary in divison finals. Stadium -
B.C. Place. Capacity - 29,706. Colors - Orange, black and silver
Last season, had
2009 CFL Eastern Preview - Hamilton Tigercats >>
Hamilton, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - East. 2008 Record:
3-15. Playoff Result: None. Stadium - Ivor Wynne Stadium. Capacity - 29,600.
Colors: Black and Gold
The 2008 season was one to forget for the Hamilton Tigerca
Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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