Jacobs Field no longer a safe haven for the Tribe

Baseball Betting Lines

08/14/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Once upon a time, the Cleveland Indians could turn to Jacobs Field to ease their troubles.

The Indians spent much of the season with the top home record in the majors, but lately they've been getting hammered pretty good in their own backyard. Since the All-Star break, Cleveland is just 6-13 at home.

Those struggles came to a head over the weekend, when the Tribe returned home from a seven-game road trip only to get swept by the New York Yankees in three games at Jacobs Field. Then again, perhaps it's more of a Yankees problem than a home field problem.

Cleveland is now 0-6 on the year against the Bronx Bombers, which accounts for the only two times the team has been swept in a series this season.

Still, the Yankee series is only a small sampling of a larger issue for the Tribe. With the weekend sweep, the Indians have now dropped 13 of their last 20 games and have failed to take hold of the division while the Detroit Tigers have struggled.

"We can't feel sorry for ourselves and let our chins fall and pout about it," manager Eric Wedge said following Sunday's 5-3 loss. "This is a tough game. All teams go through stretches like this. We've got to handle it with a lot of strength and personality and toughness, and move on."

Moving on is going to be a difficult task for a Cleveland team that was just outscored by a 22-6 margin this weekend. The Indians got off on the wrong foot early in Friday's 6-1 loss, as they could manage only four hits off Yankees starter Phil Hughes in the rookie pitcher's second start off a long stay on the disabled list. Cleveland starter Fausto Carmona was tagged with his seventh loss of the season after giving up four runs in seven innings.

The Indians dug themselves another early hole on Saturday, as starting pitcher starter Paul Byrd yielded seven runs in the second inning en route to an 11-2 loss. On Sunday, the Indians were on the wrong end of a 5-3 final largely because they failed to capitalize on a bases-loaded, no-out situation in the seventh inning.

The offense has indeed been struggling, with an average of 3.4 runs over the last 20 games. But like Wedge said, there is no time for the Indians to pout about it, since they play five of their next eight games against the Tigers, with whom Cleveland shares the top spot in the American League Central.

"We've got to get it going," pitcher Jake Westbrook said. "And we've got to get it going now."

SHAPIRO HAPPY FOR TRADES HE DIDN'T MAKE AT DEADLINE

Considering how the team has fared over the past few weeks, general manager Mark Shapiro was recently asked whether he had any regrets of not pulling the trigger on one or two more moves at the trade deadline.

"I think the danger in this game is looking at any juncture in time and taking that as a conclusive evaluation," Shapiro told the team's official site over the weekend. "It doesn't feel good at the moment. That's the reality of the emotions of the last four-to-six weeks. But we need to put that behind us and focus on (winning from) here on out and recognize the opportunity we've got."

Wedge said he was more than happy to have received Kenny Lofton prior to the trade deadline. But there were a few potential deals that could have ultimately hurt the team. One involved reliever Octavio Dotel, who is now on the DL.

"I don't think we missed an opportunity," Wedge said. "We looked hard at every opportunity. I'm thankful for some of the trades we didn't do. Ninety percent of the cases, when you examine July trades, you're going to win or lose ultimately with the club you built in the offseason and the depth you've got."

WHO'S HOT

First baseman Ryan Garko is hitting .326 over the last 25 games, a span of 86 at-bats. Despite some less-than-stellar run support, Carmona has turned in a rock-solid 1.84 ERA over his last six starts.

WHO'S NOT

Grady Sizemore (.192) is hitting below the Mendoza Line over the last six games.

A LOOK AHEAD

The Tribe had an off-day on Monday, but now welcome the Tigers to Jacobs Field to begin a two-game set. Cleveland ace C.C. Sabathia (14-6, 3.52) faces Jeremy Bonderman (10-5, 4.75) in Tuesday's opener. On Wednesday, Carmona (13-7, 3.26) will square off with Jair Jurrjens, who will be making his first big-league start.

Cleveland gets another day of rest Thursday before traveling to Tampa Bay for a weekend series with the Devil Rays.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.