Rutgers seeks fitting end to magical season

NCAA Football Betting Lines

12/24/2006 - Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 16th-ranked Rutgers Scarlet Knights are set to make their second straight bowl appearance for the first time in school history, as they take on the Kansas State Wildcats in the Texas Bowl from Reliant Stadium in Houston.

The Knights have had one of the best seasons in the program's history and if not for a heart-breaking triple-overtime loss to West Virginia in their regular season finale they would actually be representing the Big East in a BCS Bowl. Still, the team has had a tremendous run up to this point and it has already won 10 games for just the second time in the program's 137 years of existence. Included in those wins, was the program's first victory over a team ranked in the top-10, as it defeated then third-ranked Louisville 28-25. The Knights will try to add to their record-breaking campaign as they go for their first-ever bowl win. Rutgers has lost its previous two bowls games, dropping a 34-18 decision to Arizona State in 1978 and a 45-40 shootout to the Sun Devils in the 2005 Insight Bowl.

As for KSU, it posted a 7-5 mark during the regular season to earn its first bowl bid since participating in the 2004 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl. The Wildcats own an even 6-6 mark in 12 previous bowl games appearances, although they have lost two of their last three bowl contests.

This game will mark the first-ever meeting between Rutgers and Kansas State on the gridiron.

The Knights' offense revolves around the run game, and they are averaging a solid 177.6 ypg on the ground thus far. Of the offense's 37 touchdowns scored, 27 have come via the ground attack. Leading the charge for Rutgers is Ray Rice, who finished seventh in the Heisman voting after rushing for 1,624 yards and 19 touchdowns in 12 games. The speedy tailback has recorded nine 100-yard rushing games this season, including three 200-yard performances. Fullback Brian Leonard is also another weapon for Rutgers in the backfield and he has rushed for 379 yards and five touchdowns. While Leonard may not been the most explosive player with the ball, he does have excellent hands, as he leads the Knights with 36 catches. Getting the ball to Leonard is quarterback Mike Teel, who has been asked to manage the offense, not carry it. Teel however, has struggled with consistency and he has completed 55.2 percent of his throws for just 1,876 yards with 10 touchdowns against 13 interceptions.

Defensively, the Knights have been simply outstanding this season, as they are limiting their opponents to just 14.7 ppg and only 259.8 total ypg. The unit has had success against both the run (106.8 ypg) and pass (152.9 ypg), and it has posted 13 interceptions against just eight passing touchdowns. Overall, Rutgers has forced 28 turnovers, in addition to recording an impressive 38 sacks. Courtney Greene and Devraun Thompson are currently tied for the team- lead in tackles with 80 apiece. Greene also heads the club with four interceptions, while Thompson has 10.5 TFLs to his credit. Another player worth noting is Ramel Meekins, who lead the squad with 13.5 TFLs and eight sacks.

The Wildcats have lacked some explosiveness on the offensive side of the ball this season, and they enter the game averaging 23.8 ppg and a modest 328.0 total ypg. The unit is rushing for a decent 122.2 ypg, while airing it out for 205.8 ypg. KSU however, has struggled to hang onto the ball at times, committing 27 turnovers, including 18 interceptions. Quarterback Josh Freeman has accounted for 13 of those interceptions against a mere six touchdowns. Overall, Freeman has completed only 52.2 percent of his throws for just 1,651 yards in 10 outings. His main target has been Jordy Nelson, who leads the squad with 35 catches and 466 receiving yards. As for the ground game, it is paced by tailback Leon Patton. The up and coming freshman has rushed for 595 yards and six touchdowns behind an impressive 5.9 ypc average this season.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Wildcats have had success this season, limiting their opponents to 22.7 ppg and 334.5 total ypg. The unit has proven to be a bit vulnerable against the run (143.4 ypg), but has done a good job in stopping the pass (191.1 ypg). Forcing turnovers and getting to opposing quarterbacks has certainly been a strength of this unit, which has 26 forced miscues and 40 sacks to its credit. Brandon Archer is the team's top tackler at the moment with 97 stops, and he also has 2.5 sacks to his name. Ian Campbell however, is this unit's most important player and he has been able to get pressure in the backfield on a consistent basis, posting team-highs of 16.5 TFLs and 11.5 sacks.

Rutgers has had a great run and it should be able to complete its record- breaking campaign with a win over KSU. The Knights' ability to run the ball successfully and play outstanding defense is what separate's these two schools.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Rutgers 31, Kansas State 17

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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