Taking a look at the 24th Breeders' Cup

Horseracing Betting Lines

10/25/2007 - Oceanport, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Thoroughbred racing history will be made this week with the two-day Breeders' Cup World Championships at Monmouth Park. This is the first time, after 23 editions, that the Breeders" Cup will be held over two days, with 11 races being offered.

Three new races are now part of the Breeders' Cup and they will be run on Friday. The eight other races are set for Saturday at this beautiful track near the Jersey shore. When the Championships began in 1984, seven races were offered and then expanded in 1999 with the addition of the Filly & Mare Turf.

The weather forecast for the weekend is a wet one. Rain is called for Friday and thunderstorms on Saturday. The main track will be sloppy and the turf course could be soft at best.

Looking at the races, let's group them into categories. There are now three races for two-year-olds, including a turf race, three events on the turf for older horses, and the remaining five races, highlighted by the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic.

A dozen two-year-olds have been entered in the brand new $1 million Juvenile Turf at a mile. European horses would seem to have the advantage in this grass event. However, the 3-1 favorite is North America's Prussian who has won both starts. The colt broke his maiden at Saratoga and is coming off a win in a stakes at Woodbine.

Coming from Europe is Achill Island the 7-2 second pick. In his four starts he has only one win with three second place results. Achill Island has been second in both starts at one-mile.

The 9-2 third choice is Strike the Deal from England. He will be stretching out to one-mile for the first time, but will carry just 122 pounds, his lightest weight so far.

At 8-1 in the morning-line, Gio Ponti will actually drop back to a mile for this race. He has won both starts and likes to come from off the pace. Gio Ponti appears to be a good pick at a nice price.

On Saturday are the traditional races for two-year-olds. Both the Juvenile Fillies and Juvenile races will at 1 1/16 miles on the main track. It is always hard to predict winners in two-year-old races. Favorites and longshots win just as often as not. Last year Street Sense won the Juvenile at 15-1 and went on to win the Kentucky Derby to break a jinx.

Indian Blessing is the 3-1 favorite in the Juvenile Fillies. She has won both starts while running on the lead. Right next to her in the five-hole will be Irish Smoke who is coming off a bad loss as the favorite in a stakes race at Keeneland. Irish Smoke runs off the pace and should rebound from her poor effort on Keeneland's all-weather surface. Cry and Catch Me is scratched from the Juvenile Fillies.

The winner of the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile automatically becomes the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Street Sense became the first Juvenile champ to pull off the double and the first division champion since Spectacular Bid to win the Run for the Roses.

Champagne Stakes winner War Pass is the 5-2 morning-line favorite. He is undefeated in three starts and likes to win as the pace-setter. The 7-2 second choice is Tale of Ekati who is trained by Barclay Tagg. This colt comes from off the pace as he did in winning the Futurity at Belmont Park.

Norfolk Stakes winner Dixie Chatter has been scratched from the race, which leaves Norfolk runner-up Salute the Sarge as the top California entrant. Salute the Sarge will start from the next last post in the 12 horse field. He was also second in the Del Mar Futurity.

Kicking off the Breeders' Cup on Friday will be the the initial running of the $1 million Filly & Mare Sprint at six furlongs. Ten females have been entered with Dream Rush the 2-1 favorite. The filly has won four of six starts this year and will start from post three.

The lightly raced La Traviata is the 5-2 second choice. She has just three career starts, all this year, and has never lost. The three-year-old won the Post Deb Stakes here by five lengths.

The longshot to play is Jazzy. This 20-1 outsider has three starts in this country since coming over from South Africa. She was second at Monmouth Park in the Incredible Revenge Stakes.

The two favorites in Saturday's $2 million Sprint will break from the two inside posts. Midnight Lute, the 2-1 favorite, has the two hole and 7-2 second choice Smokey Stover is to his inside.

Midnight Lute has raced primarily in California this year at nothing shorter than seven furlongs. He has just one win in four starts in 2007. Midnight Lute is not a speed horse, which could prove to a disadvantage from his post position.

Smokey Stover is coming off a win in the Icecapade Stakes at Monmouth and has won five of six starts this year. If he takes the lead at the start he may not be caught.

Attilas Storm has been scratched from the Sprint with a left front ankle injury.

Only nine horses have been entered in the $1 million Dirt Mile, which concludes Friday's races. Discreet Cat is the 2-1 morning-line favorite from the inside post. He will be making his second start since a seventh place finish in the Dubai World Cup in March, The four-year-old was third in the Vosburgh last month at Belmont Park.

Met Mile winner Corinthian is the 7-2 second choice. However, the horse who loves Monmouth Park is Gottcha Gold. This colt won the Salvatore Mile and Iselin Handicap here. He is 8-1 in the program and will start from post six.

The three turf races on Saturday are the Filly & Mare Turf, Mile and Turf. European horses are always a good bet to win any of the grass events.

Nashoba's Key is the 3-1 favorite for the Filly & Mare Turf. The four-year-old made her racing debut in January and is perfect in seven starts. Three of her wins have been on all-weather tracks and is at or near the lead on all surfaces.

Honey Ryder was second to males in the United Nations Handicap here. Last year she was third in this event, just 2 1/2 lengths off the winner. The six-year- old is 9-2 in the program.

The top European horse is the 4-1 second choice Passage of Time. The three- year-old filly has only one win in three starts this year. In 2006 she won three of four starts.

The Breeders' Cup Mile has a full field of 14 for the turf event. The 3-1 morning-line favorite is Excellent Art from Europe. After Market, based in California, is the 7-2 second choice and England's Jeremy is the 5-1 third pick.

However, the two intriguing horses are Kip Deville and Nobiz Like Shobiz. Kip Deville, 6-1 in the morning-line, began the year with two staight stakes wins. He has lost his last four starts, but was a solid second to the now retired Shakespeare in the Woodbine Mile.

Nobiz Like Shobiz is 8-1 in the program and is on a three race win streak. His last three starts have all been on the grass, but this will be his first effort against older horses.

The winner of the Breeders' Cup Turf is usually the Eclipse Award winner for turf runners. Only eight have entered for the 1 1/2 mile race. Defending race winner Red Rocks is 7-2 in the morning-line and 2006 runner-up Better Talk Now is 9-2. Better Talk Now won the Turf in 2004.

Leading European horse Dylan Thomas is the 7-5 favorite. He can become the first Arc de Triomphe champ to win the Breeders' Cup Turf. To his inside will be English Channel, third in last year's Turf. English Channel is coming off a win in the Turf Classic at Belmont Park. He was second in the Sword Dancer at Saratoga after winning Monmouth's United Nations Handicap for the second time.

Belmont Stakes winner Rags to Riches is sidelined with an injury, which takes away a little of the luster for the Breeders' Cup Distaff. The $2 million race has a field of 12 females.

Indian Vale is the 3-1 favorite, though she hasn't won since June. She has lost twice to Unbridled Belle, the 9-2 third choice, this year. Most recently, Unbridled Belle defeated Indian Vale by a head in the Beldame at Belmont Park. Unbridled Bell won the Delaware Handicap in July when Indian Vale finished fifth.

The 7-2 second pick, Ginger Punch, was third in the Beldame after posting three straight wins. Highly rated three-year-olds Bear Now, Octave, Lady Joanne and Lear's Princess are all entered.

Two runners have wins at Monmouth Park this year. Prop Me Up, 50-1, won the Lady's Secret Stakes and is on a three race win streak. Hysterical Lady, 8-1, captured Monmouth's top race for females, the Molly Pitcher. She is a speed horse who has hit the board in all seven starts this year.

Completing the Breeders' Cup weekend is the 1 1/4 mile Classic. The winner will no doubt be voted Horse of the Year for 2007. Nine have been entered with each horse a solid choice to win.

Included in the field are Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, Preakness champ Curlin and Santa Anita derby winner Tiago. Two other three-year-olds are Kentucky Cup Classic winner Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday who won the Haskell at Monmouth.

The 5-2 morning-line favorite is leading handicap horse Lawyer Ron. He set a record this summer in winning the Whitney Handicap at Saratoga.

The two longest shots are George Washington, 20-1, and at 30-1 Awesome Gem. George Washington was sixth in the 2006 Classic. Awesome Gem has been second in each of his last three starts, all in California.

The horse to look out for is 15-1 longshot Diamond Stripes. The four-year-old has been in the money all eight career starts. He won his first four races to begin his career. He then had three consecutive finishes in third place and is coming off a victory in the Meadowlands Cup earlier this month.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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